Before the Pennsylvania primary finished I wrote a piece stating that Democratic superdelegates would be unmoved by the Pennsylvania primary results. According to Elizabeth Drew of Politico, that is indeed the case.
“I don’t think anyone’s shaken,” a leading House Democrat told me. The critical mass of Democratic congressmen that has been prepared to endorse Obama when the timing seemed right remains prepared to do so. Their reasons, ones they have held for months, have not changed – and by their very nature are unlikely to.
She lays out 3 big reasons why these publicly uncommitted superdelegates are simply waiting for the right time to endorse Obama.
- Hillary Clinton is a polarizing enough figure that she will motivate the Republican base.
- Abandoning Obama, the putative winner of the delegate race, would “deeply alienate” the African-American vote, which could impact the Democratic party for generations.
- African-American turnout is pivotal to many House races, and these elected officials are not going to risk those seats by alienating those voters.
According to Drew, there are enough of these superdelegates already privately lined up behind Obama that the race is essentially over at this point.
At first, a large number of superdelegates planned to announce their support for Obama following Super Tuesday, but he didn’t do well enough to warrant that; then it was to be after Ohio and Texas; then after Pennsylvania; and some Democrats suggest that if Obama wins both Indiana and North Carolina a number of superdelegates will announce for him then. But the prevailing thinking is to allow the race to play out, avoiding a confrontation with Clinton and her backers, but also letting the pressure grow on her to justify continuing to fight a bloody but lost cause. This is, the thinking goes, the best and perhaps only way to get the thing wrapped up, as they so desperately want to do.
Matt – I have no source or poll to back me up, but I am still stubbornly hanging onto the notion that the PA Primary DID matter and superdelegates who want to remain hip, but right, are alluding to Obama, but remaining either undecided or hypocritically unwilling to come forward. (Or even perhaps enjoying the mystery and power. Nooooo. That can’t be.)
If Obama starts pulling substancially ahead, out they come. But, if the tide turns, they can cast for Clinton while throwing their hands up in a ‘what else could we do’ gesture.. Best of both worlds. Just my opinion.
I do think the PA primary mattered, but my impression of these Congressional superdelegates is that they are looking out for #1 and basing their support on which candidate can help them the most.
I agree that they’re waiting to cast their lot until there is the least amount of risk to themselves. Like you said, if the tide does turn, then their necks are sticking out.