Tea Bird

McCain • Obama

Latest Swing State Polls

By matt carter ⋅ June 18, 2008 ⋅  Email This Post ⋅  Print This Post ⋅ Post a comment

This is the bounce following the close of the Democratic Primary that everyone has been waiting for.

I’ve never thought that McCain has much of a shot at Pennsylvania, and these new Quinnipiac University poll numbers bear this out with Obama up by 12 in the Keystone state.  He’s also ahead in Florida and Ohio.

FLORIDA: Obama 47, McCain 43
OHIO: Obama 48, McCain 42
PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 52, McCain 40

Dates conducted: June 9-16. Error margin: 2.5-2.6 points.

Regarding those Clinton voters jumping to McCain, it’s real so far.  But, as Ambinder points out, doesn’t seem to matter much:

Obama’s getting the votes of 13% of ‘04 Bush voters in Florida and Ohio, and 19% in Pennsylvania. McCain gets the support of 24% of Clinton voters in PA and roughly equivalent percentages in OH and FL. So, from O’s perspective, maybe it doesn’t really matter that a quarter of Clinton Democrats turned Red.

From Q-PAC:

Florida

Florida women likely voters back Obama 50 - 40 percent, while men go 47 percent for McCain and 44 percent for Obama. White voters back McCain 50 - 40 percent while black voters back Obama 95 - 4 percent. Obama leads 57 -35 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old; he splits 48 - 46 percent with McCain among voters 35 to 54, and 44 - 46 percent with voters over 55.

Ohio

Obama leads 51 - 39 percent among Ohio women likely voters, while men go 46 percent for McCain and 45 percent for Obama. White voters also are narrowly divided with 47 percent for McCain and 44 percent for Obama, but Obama commands black voters 90 - 6 percent. The Democrat also leads 58 - 36 percent among voters 18 to 34 and 49 - 42 percent among voters 35 to 54, while McCain has the 47 - 43 percent edge among voters over 55.

Pennsylvania

Obama tops McCain 57 - 34 percent with women as men go 47 percent for McCain to 45 percent for Obama. Obama leads 61 - 33 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, 51 - 41 percent among voters 35 to 54 and 48 - 43 percent with voters over 55. The Democrat inches ahead 47 - 44 percent among white voters and leads among black voters 95 - 1 percent.

Obama gets a 54 - 25 percent favorability, to 43 - 33 percent for McCain.

Tags: election 2008, McCain, Obama, Pennsylvania, poll